Macro
Liquidity, inflation, rates, fiscal policy, currency regimes, and global capital flows.
Lantern Alpha · 夜帆眺望
Lantern Alpha
Reading signals through uncertainty.
Independent research on macro cycles, technology shifts, crypto markets, and investment regimes.
Coverage
Technology
AI, semiconductors, software, automation, infrastructure, and platform shifts.
Crypto
Market structure, on-chain flows, stablecoins, DeFi, token incentives, and regulatory cycles.
Investment Regimes
Risk appetite, factor rotation, valuation, liquidity, volatility, and reflexivity.
Method
- Mechanism over narrative
- Incentives and constraints
- Cross-asset signals
- Regime shifts
- Falsifiable indicators
- Decision relevance
Lantern Alpha studies how liquidity, policy, technology, market structure, and narrative reflexivity interact under uncertainty. We prioritise structural understanding over directional bets and clear signals over confident stories.
Latest Research
All research →-
Reading Liquidity Before Narrative
Why liquidity conditions often move before market narratives become obvious, and how to track them without confusing flows with stories.
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AI Capex and the New Industrial Cycle
How AI infrastructure spending changes the rhythm of technology investment cycles, and where the supply, power, and depreciation constraints actually sit.
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Stablecoins as Dollar Distribution Infrastructure
Stablecoins are not only crypto instruments. They are emerging as a parallel distribution rail for dollar liquidity, with regulatory and macro consequences.
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Investment Regimes, Not Single Forecasts
Why the core question is rarely a single forecast, but which regime the market is migrating into — and how to identify the transition before the consensus does.
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Signals Under Uncertainty
A research note on separating durable signals from narrative noise — what makes a signal informative, falsifiable, and decision-relevant.
Research and market intelligence only. Not investment advice.