Skip to content
Lantern Alpha

Briefing

Briefing

Short updates between long-form notes. One-line judgment, the variables driving it, and what we are watching next. Not a forecast feed.

  • Funding conditions easing at the margin; equity dispersion is the cleaner expression than index direction.

    Key variables
    TGA drawdown trajectory · FX-swap implied USD rates vs. SOFR · AI capex guidance from hyperscaler quarterly cycle
    Watchlist
    CoWoS-class packaging capacity commentary · Stablecoin reserve composition disclosures · EM rates differential vs. US 2y real

  • Cross-asset correlations are normalising; regime indicator remains "expansion with tightening tails."

    Key variables
    Realised vs. implied vol across rates and credit · Dealer inventory in long-duration Treasuries · Power-purchase agreement headlines on hyperscale builds
    Watchlist
    High-yield primary issuance demand · Term premium re-pricing on long end · Single-name dispersion in semis

  • Stablecoin reserve growth has decoupled from crypto spot turnover — payments-use signal worth tracking.

    Key variables
    Major issuer reserve disclosures · Treasury bill auction stop-out vs. WI · Cross-border remittance flow proxies
    Watchlist
    US stablecoin yield-rule interpretation · EM corridor dollarisation cases · Tokenised MMF AUM growth

Briefings will move to a regular cadence as the publication schedule formalises. Cadence and format may change while we tune the signal-to-noise balance for this format.

Briefings reflect research interpretation of public information at the time of writing and may be revised without notice. Not investment advice.